This article contains thoughts on risk written by Howard Marks in his presentation “The Truth about Investing” and quotes taken from masterinvest.com
Risk is an inescapable part of investing. You shouldn’t expect to make money without bearing risk.Any approach, strategy or investment that promises substantial gain without risk is simply too good to be true. But you also shouldn’t expect to make money just for bearing risk.Many people believe riskier investments produce higher returns, and thus the way to make more money is to take more risk. That can’t be right.
A popular chart purports to show that return increases when risk has increased. Most people interpret it to mean “riskier assets produce higher returns” or “the way to make more money is to take more risk.” These are traps into which most investors fall, especially in times when things are going well and risk taking is being rewarded.
It’s true that investments that seem riskier must appear to offer higher returns in order to attract capital. But if risky investments could be counted on to produce high returns, they wouldn’t be risky. As risk increases, the expected return rises, the range of possible outcomes becomes wider, and the worst outcome worsens and ultimately becomes negative. This is the way to think about the risk/return relationship.
Risk has to be dealt with, but not through quantification. Theory accepts volatility as the indicator of risk, largely because data on volatility is quantitative and machinable. But people in the real world don’t worry about volatility or demand a premium return to bear it; what they care about is the likelihood of losing money. Because that likelihood can’t be quantified, risk is best handled by experienced experts applying subjective, qualitative judgment that is superior.
“Risk never looks like risk when it’s generating a high return” Howard Marks
“Makes sure that the probability of the unacceptable (ie the risk of ruin) is nil” Ray Dalio
“We will bypass many great investment ideas if we think there’s even an infinitesimal potential for a zero, because it’s just not something we can underwrite. We prefer downside probabilities where if it is a zero it means it is a 0% IRR, but a 0% IRR still keeps our capital intact.” Christopher Begg
“Risk is not the foundation of profit but its most dreaded enemy” Andy Redleaf
“You have to be in risk management mode all the time, not just when you might be particularly nervous, because it is impossible to time the transitions of markets to crisis conditions.” Paul Singer
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