This week we celebrated NSE 50 index crossing 10000 for the first time. Newspapers are filled with index targets over the next few years and guesses about when it will hit 20000! IPOs are listing at large premium, everyone has started believing that it is time to invest now and brokers’ offices are busy again. This is the time to remind ourselves of a few things about the bull market.
“Very early in my career, a veteran investor told me about the three stages of a bull market. Now I’ll share them with you. The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better. The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually taking place. The third, when everyone concludes things will get better forever. Why would anyone waste time trying for a better description? This one says it all. It’s essential that we grasp its significance. “Howard Marks
“The further you get away from a bear market, the greater the number of people who have convinced themselves they can handle the downside – until the next time, of course. In the interim, if the indices are performing well, then you can bet that many investors – individuals and professionals, alike – are going to feel pressure to do whatever they can to ride the bull.” Steven Romick
“In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond.” Warren Buffett
“In a bull market, it is advisable to restrain one’s greed. There is an old wall street saying “The bulls make money, the bears make money. But what happens to the pigs?” You can’t make 101 percent. You shouldn’t even strive to make 100 percent. Your goal should be 66.6% of a big move. Get out and then reinvest in something that has been newly studied” Roy Neuberger
“Common stocks should be purchased when their prices are low, not after they have risen to high levels during an upward bull-marketspiral. Buy when everyone else is selling and hold on until everyone else is buying—this is more than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful investment” J Paul Getty
“During ‘bull’ markets, many investors tend to give themselves too much credit for favourable results and to give insufficient credit to the positive environment that played a large role in creating the results. This can lead to overconfidence on the part of the investor and resulting mis-assessment of risks” Ed Wachenheim
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